Over the last two weeks, bitcoin saw its longest streak of red days since 2014. The volume was modest and expansive on the drop as the price managed to lose 25% in value in just 10 days. At the time of this article, the market is testing the strength of the support near the bottom of the macro trading range (TR):
Figure 1: BTC-USD, 1-Day Candles, Macro Trading Range
As noted in several previous articles, this is a very important stronghold for the bulls. If support does not manage to hold this support, the market will undoubtedly search lower values in an attempt to garner significant market demand.
Previously, I discussed the possibility of the recent move to $8,400 as a so-called Sign of Strength (SoS). Typically, a SoS would like to see an approximate 50% retracement for it to be considered a healthy, bullish move. However, in our case, we saw a 100% retracement.
Not only did the market move retrace 100%, but the volume and price spread that accompanied the move back to the bottom of the TR was on steady volume and wide candle spread. Steady volume paired with wide candle spread is a sign that the market is lacking demand and that the sellers are overwhelmingly dominating the market:
Figure 2: BTC-USD, 12-Hour Candles, Selling Pressure
The chart above shows just how dominant the sellers were on this latest shove. You see next to no buyers stepping in as the volume and price spread continue to expand on its path to the local bottom.
This movement is not in line with what we would expect to accompany a SoS off the bottom of TR. This is an inherent sign of weakness in the market and something that shouldn’t be taken lightly. Granted, in the grand scheme of the market, the whole volume profile is still consolidating:
Figure 3: BTC-USD, 3-Day Candles, Volume Consolidation
Although the overall volume trend is consolidating, it is pretty clear that sell pressure is still very present relative to the recent